Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Which Champ will lose first?

Looking at the current Champs for the UFC, we see what is perhaps the most dominate lineup of champions ever.

Heavyweight—Brock Lesner
Light-Heavyweight- Lyoto Machida
Middleweight- Anderson Silva
Welterweight- GSP
Lightweight- BJ Penn

Pretty much all of these champions have made fans and journalists alike ask the question “who can beat this guy?” The newest champion, Lyoto, still has to show us how he will do on his first title defense before we know if he’s a dominate champ, but his recent fights would indicate that he will be. The question for this article is which one will lose first?

I will pass over the ones that don’t appear to have any serious challenges at the time being. GSP has no one left in his weight class that poses an immediate threat. He has more or less cleared out the division. Same goes for Anderson. Nate and Dan look like good contenders, but Silva has been there, done that. BJ Penn, if he gets past Diego (and I think he will) will have very few legit challengers left, but will have a lot of options nonetheless.

This leaves us with Brock Lesner and Lyoto Machida. Obviously Lesner has the least experience of anyone on the list, but his size and athleticism have kept him successful in his short career. Lyoto on the other hand, has just not been figured out yet. It’s been said that once someone figures out how to properly fight Lyoto, the flood gates will open and he’ll rack up losses fairly quickly.

Lyoto’s next matchup is a defense against Shogun. This is a great matchup for Lyoto as I’m fairly certain his standup style will befuddle Shogun. Rua is not known to take many fighters down so this type of match up is perfect for Lyoto to keep his win streak alive. I don’t believe this will be the fight that will expose the trick to beating Machida.

This brings us to Brock. Brock fights a very tough Shane Carwin in a matter of months. This will be Brock’s biggest test because it almost takes away all of his advantages. He typically bullies his opponents based on size and strength. It seems that he will have to showcase some actual skill against Carwin. Shane, on the other hand, has fought some big opponents (specifically Gonzaga) and knows how to use skill rather than bully power. One other important thing that we don’t know is how Lesner will react when punched hard. We’ve seen how Carwin can adapt after being rocked, but Lesner has never really been put in a situation where he was in the danger zone with a striker that can knock him out. Obviously if he can pull out the victory, the chances of beating Lesner without Fedor making his way to the UFC will drop significantly.

My choice for the person most likely to lose his title first? Brock. I think there are too many questions left for Brock to answer when he fights someone his own size. Luckily we won’t have to wait long to find out.


  1. I think BJ will be beaten by a good, strong wrestler. Someone like Sherk if he gets another shot. But someone will need to tell Sherk not to stand and box with BJ. Remember when Jake O'Brien beat Heath Herring? Yeah...like that.

  2. Ok i like this question and will answer it :) I think Brock Lesnar Will Lose at UFC106 and BJ Penn will lose at UFC107. GSP, Silva and Machida are safe for now and i cant see them lose for a while.

  3. I think Marquardt has much improved standup and can hang with Silva in that arena now without being KTFO'd. Hendo has the style to beat Silva. I think we all know that a good wrestler that can get past Silva's striking, stay out of the clinch, take him down, and not get submitted can put pressure on him and win a decision. Of course, this is a lot of steps to get through but it is the formula and Hendo is the man to do it. Not sayin he will...just sayin.

    As far as how to beat Lesnar...its been done, grab a limb and crank on it!

    Machida? I havent quite figured that one out but certainly dont chase him!

    GSP? Well Hughes and Serra beat him by getting in his head. I think if GSP doesnt come to fight is the only way he can be beat at this point...or if he fights Silva.

    I already presented the formula for Penn...GSP did it but now it will take a small wrestler to do it again. Diego cant do it.

    And of course, flying heel hook conquers all.